jlerollblues on Science and surprisingly related topics

Today's update features the latest model forecast arriving later today. There have been some adjust's in the parameter space the last 24 hours as Reproduction Numbers and the waning of immunity from infection are adjust. This is in response to the latest variant proportions were "officially" published:  Thanks to Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (EFD) we were able to see this yesterday. Why the delay? These should be posted immediately (after QA/QC) and in my opinion more frequently. The numbers should really be of concern, the change from last week's numbers are dramatic and indicate a faster surge than I expected. Thus my Reproduction number adjustment in the model. I also went back a looked at numbers that provided the impetus to further adjust the post-infection immunity "half-life". When someone tells you that your protection will last 4-6 months ask them if they'd like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. Semantically it might correct, however a 50% threshold is qui

 Hello, I will be transitioning from Twitter to this page for updates on Covid and other relevant content. The updates will keep rolling throughout the day and be summarized at days end. So let's dig in and start with Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's (EFD) breaking news from late last evening. I have spent the last couple weeks wondering why MAPS, my model, has been pushing BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variant infection proportions faster than what I was seeing in the data. This EFD news partially explains why the objective model was just doing it's job. This current wave will be like no previous one. I started formulating things would be much different by observing the BA.5 numbers. You talk about persistent, that variant would just not fade from dominance. This lead me to hypothesize that future sub lineages would exhibit a similar behavior. It quickly ran through my mind that if this trait was combined with an even stronger growth  advantage we would be facing some dire consequences.Here is a s

  This is NOT a normal forecast, it is an uncalibrated training run "straight out of the box". In this run a 50% new booster compliance is assumed with a normalized rollout delivery rate. Recent wastewater data has indicated an upcoming surge. The model captures this likely mini surge. It is too early for the new booster to have a significant impact but over the course of the next few months it is likely having an effect. A few of caveats, this is a training run for the model ensemble, does not include "spreader" events, and does not have BA.4.6 or BA.2.75 variants. As indicated in the article below, the BA.4/5 subvariants exhibit nearly a 2 fold increase in evading immunity. First, the training will be completed with these variants and spreader events, and then sensitivity simulations with/without the n ew booster added.These will all be posted sometime tomorrow/Monday with state forecasts and animations.This MAPS version has a new reinfection algorithm that is mu

  9-5-2022: Wow, what a week of exciting science news. Most of it inspires, some of it depresses. Let us start off with a mind bender. Here kitty kitty: This is an excellent summary. In a nutshell entanglement is a measure of separate entities sharing a quantum state. What is wild is that you can measure one entity by itself, the process of measuring these alters both. We are not talking about scales on the atomic level, it has now been seen in objects separated by 12km (I think that is the distance, not important to get the exact number).  Basically what you measure is the correlation between the two.  Which brings us to this mind bender. Up until now it has been experimentally shown for basic elementary quantum particles. Not anymore. As articulated below things are not just black and white, in the quantum world they can be both at the same time. When thinking about this behavior my mind wanders into so many realms. For example, could this be the beginning of understanding the parano

  RAMS simulation of Hurricane Andrew Responding to the 30-year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. One of my favorite accomplishments (Eastman, J.L., 1995: Numerical simulation of Hurricane Andrew - Rapid intensification. 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April 1995, Miami, Florida, AMS, Boston, 111-113.) Made me think about how old I am getting and how I am in a sense the father of modern-day hurricane forecasting. Amazingly the "good ole boys’ network" at the HRC sucked up all funds and they pursued it. We gave up getting funding despite having Bill Gray on our team (the father of statistical seasonal hurricane forecasting). I remember he walked in one day when our team was viewing the animation I produced. He piped in loudly, "when the hell did that hurricane form, I missed it!". We all roared with laughter.  I have been addicted to numerical modeling ever since. Thanks Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. for letting me go off in tangents during my gra

 During the morning Covid model programming/forecast/reading I like to randomly pick a show and play. Actually helps me type and my thoughts flow better. Today I clicked on 7-8-78 Red Rocks. Then hearing Donna on a pretty wild rampage I thought, "Damn, it's Donna's Birthday". So the in honor of Donna I start the inaugural Grateful Dead Show of the Day. Click on the link and enjoy! 8-22-2022:  https://archive.org/details/gd78-07-08.sbd.unknown.294.sbeok.shnf 8-23-2022:  https://archive.org/details/gd73-11-30.sbd.vernon.8099.sbeok.shnf Interesting stories behind the concert and how Dick's Picks released it. Back in the days of cassette tapes I was an active trader through The Dead-Flames Digest. Met many of the folks personally, some older, some younger. That's besides the point, maybe more later. I traded for this show, of which only 1 source was known at the time. When it arrived I quickly inserted the cassette and holy shit, it was one of the worst audience r