Covid Update - 10-29-2020

Today's update features the latest model forecast arriving later today. There have been some adjust's in the parameter space the last 24 hours as Reproduction Numbers and the waning of immunity from infection are adjust. This is in response to the latest variant proportions were "officially" published: 


Thanks to Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (EFD) we were able to see this yesterday. Why the delay? These should be posted immediately (after QA/QC) and in my opinion more frequently. The numbers should really be of concern, the change from last week's numbers are dramatic and indicate a faster surge than I expected. Thus my Reproduction number adjustment in the model. I also went back a looked at numbers that provided the impetus to further adjust the post-infection immunity "half-life". When someone tells you that your protection will last 4-6 months ask them if they'd like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. Semantically it might correct, however a 50% threshold is quickly reached. 

The data indicates BF.7 is still a factor in this mix although its growth will likely be suppressed by the more contagious BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants. And do not forget about XBB. This variant is still in its infancy in the US. It's behavior is still being assessed but expect a possible divergence from the BQ variants based on its lineage:


Here is one from the WTF category, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/10/who-advisers-weigh-omicron-xbb-and-bq1-subvariants. The WHO says: "After meeting earlier this week to review Omicron developments, the World Health Organization (WHO) SARS-CoV-2 virus evolution advisory group held off on designating XBB and BQ.1 sub lineages as variants of concern." I'm must be missing a death threshold or somethin. Yes, they are part of the Omicron family, but goodness gracious this makes very little sense. The model indicates a BQ takeover in the next month. About the time that surge begins to subside I will wager XBB will start another. Keep your eye on XBB. The article also indicates a decrease in European cases and deaths while hospitalization remains steady. Finally U.S. cases have decreased slightly but this is a mirage in my opinion. There are so many asymptomatic cases out there that will continue an unquantified spread. Remember, just because you have had a mild infection or two you are rolling the dice with each infection, all with the possibility of a severe outcome and/or LT Covid.

Stay tuned for today's model update arriving this evening ...

Other News


Bottom Line: You are never out of the woods with this virus. We have seen this before with therapeutics, even our President.


Bottom Line: Get your fucking booster or update your vaccination!

Flu News - "US flu activity continued its early rise last week, with the first pediatric flu death of the new season reported and hospitalization rates already rising, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

The pediatric flu death involved an H3N2 virus and occurred during the week that ended on Oct 8. The CDC said the cumulative hospitalization rate for flu last week was 1.5 per 100,000 population, which is at the highest level for this point of the season since 2010-11. More than 94% of flu hospitalizations involved influenza A, and of subtyped samples, 72.9% were the H3N2 strain. Rates were highest in seniors and in children up to age 4 years."

Bottom Line: Get your fucking flu shot! This year's flu shot is well tailored for the flu strains out there.



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