Covid update - 11-4-2022 (model almost ready)
Well, I had a wonderful trip to my hometown and the Mayo Clinic. I was surprised that the staff there are still wearing the cheap surgical masks (<15% effective) and not N95 (nearly 80% effective). Those of us with crappy immune systems were about the only ones. I still feel fortunate to go to one of the best medical centers in the world. I returned to the MAPS and see it created some more data for me to process. That is proceeding write now. We now have more ingredients for the spaghetti I served the other day. I am anxious awaiting the final production of initial conditions (ICs) so I can run the quick turnaround forecasts again. But it is over a terabyte of information to chew through right now. Ugghh. I will get these out ASAP.
Ending the Pandemic - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2
Bottom line : Echos what many of us have been saying for almost 3 years. “Unity” is the magic word from global to local levels. Here is a snippet, read all the recommendations if you wish, worth the time.
inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.
Tracing and Tracking (1) - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2798102
Bottom Line : not only has our testing completely inadequate but tracing is a lost art. If PI or SIGMA ever show up we will not know until it is already out of control. The longer we ignore the “Unity” of “Ending the Pandemic” the more time this virus will have time to mutate. And good gracious, where the hell is the funding for so many helpful mitigations and scientific research? I already have colleagues with no funding after promising starts to their research.
Question What were the outcomes of the COVID-19 contact tracing program in New York City?
Findings In this cross-sectional study, a workforce of 4147 contact tracers attempted case investigations on 941 035 persons and contact interviews on 1 218 650 persons from June 1, 2020, to October 31, 2021. Overall expense from May 6, 2020, to October 31, 2021, was approximately $600 million.
Meaning These results suggest that a large program can be rapidly developed, operationalized, and subsequently maintained.
Tracing and Tracking (2) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1047279722002642
Bottom Line : Another example of effective and innovative implementation of a tracing program.
Timely notification of exposure to a COVID-19 positive individual by student contact tracers allowed for probable cases to quarantine early in the disease process. Our data suggests that early quarantine and/or isolation may have directly contributed to probable cases having fewer non-household contacts and a smaller proportion of symptomatic household contacts compared to confirmed cases.
Vaccines and Children, A waning problem - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2210058
Bottom Line - Age stratification by Covid is multidimensional from death to vaccines.
Vaccination in children was associated with modest, rapidly waning protection against omicron infection. Vaccination in adolescents was associated with stronger, more durable protection, perhaps because of the larger antigen dose.
Through the Roof? - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/12/22-0666_article
Bottom Line : Many of us have been calling for improved building air filtration and upgrades. A large chunk of government allocated money has went unused. It is one reason why I do not dine in without proper precautions.
poorly ventilated hotel was the most likely route of virus transmission. This event demonstrates the high transmissibility of Omicron variants, even across rooms and floors, through structural defects. Our findings emphasize the importance of ventilation and integrity of building structure in quarantine facilities.
Would you like the Combo Meal? - https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-initiate-phase-1-study-single-dose-mrna
Bottom line : if it gets more people to get the insanely obvious choice of having both why not.
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