The Covid Update - 10-28-2022

 Hello, I will be transitioning from Twitter to this page for updates on Covid and other relevant content. The updates will keep rolling throughout the day and be summarized at days end. So let's dig in and start with Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's (EFD) breaking news from late last evening.



I have spent the last couple weeks wondering why MAPS, my model, has been pushing BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variant infection proportions faster than what I was seeing in the data. This EFD news partially explains why the objective model was just doing it's job. This current wave will be like no previous one. I started formulating things would be much different by observing the BA.5 numbers. You talk about persistent, that variant would just not fade from dominance. This lead me to hypothesize that future sub lineages would exhibit a similar behavior. It quickly ran through my mind that if this trait was combined with an even stronger growth  advantage we would be facing some dire consequences.Here is a simple illustration of what I am calling a pandemic superposition wave that shows a larger magnitude for the resultant wave.

Now what happens when their temporal distributions or frequency is different? 
 

This illustrates our current mess. You can have spikes in some plots that are shorter term and others with a longer term evolution. The result is a pandemic superposition wave that spans all time. Instead of a short term spike we have perceived in past waves the contribution of many variants produces a persistent long term wave. What does this look like in "model reality"? Here is one of the models latest training runs:


Notice the width of what the model predicts is coming. For example, at 20 million active cases the previous January 2022 was roughly a month at or above that level. Meanwhile the projected wave is nearly 4 months long! It doesn't take a genius to think of the implications of this.Our healthcare system is ,ironically, already on life-support. Imagine what this projected wave could do. Lest we forget, we concurrently have a severe pediatric problem due to RSV (scary interaction of respiratory viruses: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01242-5) that now has 75% of the nations pediatric beds occupied. 

There have been recent signs that the WH (https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/10/white-house-announces-more-steps-battle-fall-covid-19-activity)and others are beginning to wake up to to the fact the "New Normal" is a facade (https://jlerollblues.blogspot.com/2022/07/is-follow-up-to-my-last-post-i-put-on.html). I not going to hold my breath however. People need to step up on a personal level until the folks in charge get their act together. MASK, BOOST (and get up to date if you are not eligible), LIMIT YOUR GATHERINGS, EDUCATE OTHERS, AND tell your crazy Uncle he is not welcome this holiday season without a vaccine card and a mask! We are still hovering around 300-400 American deaths a day, I grow sad at the thought of what is ahead. I will update this throughout the day as more relevant information comes to my attention.Model results are coming out soon as well as some "official" current status data.

Other News:

LT Covid - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2797782

Bottom line: Cost  at least $1,000,000,000,000 over the next decade, extreme workforce interruptions, more stress on the healthcare system

 Covid playbook for employers: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Fall-Playbook-for-Businesses-to-Manage-COVID-19-and-Protect-Workers.pdf

Transmission - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34130-x

Bottom line: Geographical population variation across leads to different local "Covid States" each with nuances that require specific mitigation strategies. 

Osterholm Podcast - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-116

Race - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/10/racial-disparities-covid-drug-prescribing-persistent-lessening

Bottom line: This pervades our culture, no denying its persistence and downright ugliness. Speak up!

Minnesota Wastewater - https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/covid-in-metro-wastewater-jumps-to-highest-level-since-january

Bottom line: Get ready for over 4 months of the Pandemic Superposition Wave, we've been lucky so far.

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