jlerollblues on Science and surprisingly related topics

  This is NOT a normal forecast, it is an uncalibrated training run "straight out of the box". In this run a 50% new booster compliance is assumed with a normalized rollout delivery rate. Recent wastewater data has indicated an upcoming surge. The model captures this likely mini surge. It is too early for the new booster to have a significant impact but over the course of the next few months it is likely having an effect. A few of caveats, this is a training run for the model ensemble, does not include "spreader" events, and does not have BA.4.6 or BA.2.75 variants. As indicated in the article below, the BA.4/5 subvariants exhibit nearly a 2 fold increase in evading immunity. First, the training will be completed with these variants and spreader events, and then sensitivity simulations with/without the n ew booster added.These will all be posted sometime tomorrow/Monday with state forecasts and animations.This MAPS version has a new reinfection algorithm that is mu...

  9-5-2022: Wow, what a week of exciting science news. Most of it inspires, some of it depresses. Let us start off with a mind bender. Here kitty kitty: This is an excellent summary. In a nutshell entanglement is a measure of separate entities sharing a quantum state. What is wild is that you can measure one entity by itself, the process of measuring these alters both. We are not talking about scales on the atomic level, it has now been seen in objects separated by 12km (I think that is the distance, not important to get the exact number).  Basically what you measure is the correlation between the two.  Which brings us to this mind bender. Up until now it has been experimentally shown for basic elementary quantum particles. Not anymore. As articulated below things are not just black and white, in the quantum world they can be both at the same time. When thinking about this behavior my mind wanders into so many realms. For example, could this be the beginning of understand...

  RAMS simulation of Hurricane Andrew Responding to the 30-year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. One of my favorite accomplishments (Eastman, J.L., 1995: Numerical simulation of Hurricane Andrew - Rapid intensification. 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April 1995, Miami, Florida, AMS, Boston, 111-113.) Made me think about how old I am getting and how I am in a sense the father of modern-day hurricane forecasting. Amazingly the "good ole boys’ network" at the HRC sucked up all funds and they pursued it. We gave up getting funding despite having Bill Gray on our team (the father of statistical seasonal hurricane forecasting). I remember he walked in one day when our team was viewing the animation I produced. He piped in loudly, "when the hell did that hurricane form, I missed it!". We all roared with laughter.  I have been addicted to numerical modeling ever since. Thanks Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. for letting me go off in tangents during my gra...

 During the morning Covid model programming/forecast/reading I like to randomly pick a show and play. Actually helps me type and my thoughts flow better. Today I clicked on 7-8-78 Red Rocks. Then hearing Donna on a pretty wild rampage I thought, "Damn, it's Donna's Birthday". So the in honor of Donna I start the inaugural Grateful Dead Show of the Day. Click on the link and enjoy! 8-22-2022:  https://archive.org/details/gd78-07-08.sbd.unknown.294.sbeok.shnf 8-23-2022:  https://archive.org/details/gd73-11-30.sbd.vernon.8099.sbeok.shnf Interesting stories behind the concert and how Dick's Picks released it. Back in the days of cassette tapes I was an active trader through The Dead-Flames Digest. Met many of the folks personally, some older, some younger. That's besides the point, maybe more later. I traded for this show, of which only 1 source was known at the time. When it arrived I quickly inserted the cassette and holy shit, it was one of the worst audience r...

Vaccine Update:  https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/100482?xid=nl_mpt_Nursing_update_2022-09-01&eun=g2122517d0r%3Fxid%3Dnl_mpt_Nursing_update_2022-09-01&eun=g2122517d0r Here is a summary from the Daily Beast.   https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-ba46-covid-variant-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-deja-vu-nightmare It appears to have a minimum of a 10% advantage over BA.5, our current dominant variant. There is another in India that is wreaking havoc, BA.2.75. I will keep an eye on that. MAPS will be run this weekend with the best data I have at the moment to look at the temporal trajectory over the next couple months. Keep in mind that we have several factors that could magnify the severity of the outcome from BA.4.6. These include: Back to school time Mass gatherings at events with little or no mitigation requirements More indoor time as fall arrives Little public alarm to what is going on resulting from mixed messaging (see latest CDC reorganization) Horribl...

Dr. Osterholm: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-111 Matt and me:  https://soundcloud.com/user-587903571/dr-joe-eastman-with-matt-august-18-2022?utm_source=clipboard&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=widget&utm_content=https%253A%252F%252Fsoundcloud.com%252Fuser-587903571%252Fdr-joe-eastman-with-matt-august-18-2022

 We have seen the masks mandates (and social distancing) continually being chipped away from interests (protesters and $$$'s have won) other than public health. Now its got to the point where supposed experts and CDC mouthpieces are say it is time to move on and follow some alternate science, and subsequently most mandates have disappeared, even in our damn public schools. Well, what does MAPS have to say about this? No subjectivity in a damn computer model, its Switzerland when it comes to this. Neutral, objective like public health experts should be, just follow the science baby. Maps was used to perform a quick sensitivity study on mask mandates effect on the evolution of the Covid spread in the United States. Only N95 masks were deployed and with a 10 foot social distance the effectiveness was set to 80% for all integrations, and yes  @DrLeanaWen the model wears masks indoors, no hypocrisy in MAPS.  A total of 6 integrations were performed with the only difference bei...