MAPS Sensitivity to Masks/Distancing: 8-10-2022

 We have seen the masks mandates (and social distancing) continually being chipped away from interests (protesters and $$$'s have won) other than public health. Now its got to the point where supposed experts and CDC mouthpieces are say it is time to move on and follow some alternate science, and subsequently most mandates have disappeared, even in our damn public schools. Well, what does MAPS have to say about this? No subjectivity in a damn computer model, its Switzerland when it comes to this. Neutral, objective like public health experts should be, just follow the science baby. Maps was used to perform a quick sensitivity study on mask mandates effect on the evolution of the Covid spread in the United States. Only N95 masks were deployed and with a 10 foot social distance the effectiveness was set to 80% for all integrations, and yes @DrLeanaWen the model wears masks indoors, no hypocrisy in MAPS. A total of 6 integrations were performed with the only difference being the compliance. During the initial stages of the pandemic outbreak the mask compliance was estimated to peak at a 62% rate mean state rate. As alluded to in last night's MAPS forecast (https://jlerollblues.blogspot.com/2022/08/maps-forecast-8-10-2022-and-maps.html) an obvious pattern emerged that sustained active case levels that actually grew slightly as BA.5 and BA.4 exerted their dominance were confined to urban/suburban areas, while the rural regions quickly dissipated for reasons mentioned in the blog. This appeared to be a window of opportunity if the powers that be would actually follow the science. The idea was that by targeting the large urban areas with strongly enforced mask mandates we might be able to stop this emerging long term plateau of Covid and save over 3000 lives a week, relieve hospital stress, and curtail long haul outcomes. This would also buy time for the Omicron specific vaccines to be rolled out and get vaccinated levels at least to a 50% mark. Sure there will be possible speed bumps, maybe in rural areas again. 

Last night's numbers were an Ensemble Average (EA) of 13 integrations. For this study I choose one of the most aggressive ensemble spread members (F8) to demonstrate the power of the MASK/DISANCING mandate. The compliance ranged from a high of 90%, then dropped to 70, 50, 30, 10, and 0% for integrations F14-19, respectively. Shown in Figure 1 are some encouraging results from these integrations.

Figure 1: MAPS Sensitivity Study of Mask/Distancing Mandates targeted at urban locations with varying compliance rates.

This was eye popping. Even at 70% compliance there is minute differences from the 90% case. If we achieved the 2020 peak of 62% it would still be a game changer. Here are a couple of animations of the 90% and 0% compliance integrations to show you the spatial outcome.