MAPS Returns

 The forecast model is back in action after cleaning up a data ingest mess (no thanks to the CDC) to initialize the model. 

WARNING: The following forecast will alarm you. If it doesn't you are a human with no empathy.

MAPS Forecast: 7.22.2022 I have been hammering on the phrase "new normal" (NN). Here is what it could look like:

Remember, the reported cases have been hovering around 120,000 new cases a day since mid-May. Now that BA.5.x and BA.4.x have taken root active cases are predicted to rise and stay nearly constant over the next 2 months. This could be our NN with nearly 600 deaths a day, long Covid outcomes increasing, health care workers bailing, and no end in site. It is like a Covid version of the "background" cases of the flu with little seasonal variability. What the hell do our "leaders" expect? Divine intervention? 

So where is this NN likely to reside the most? A quick look at urban and rural Minnesota gives us an idea. The animation and plots indicate urban centers will continue in a near constant state, obviously due to contact rates magnitudes larger than rural areas. 

 Here is a frightening example from NY:

California:

and the contrast with Idaho, where only Boise has the population density to support the slow changing active cases elevated levels:

NN does not stop at the end of the forecast. We got another variant that I called the three amigos (BA.2.74-76) a couple months ago coming down the pipeline. It has already showed up at appreciable levels in wastewater samples across the country. It now makes up 12% of the infections in India (country of origin). It will surely supplant BA.5.x. In this country we could see these insane NN case levels well into December with an increase. Remember BA.2.7X evades all monoclonal antibody therapies. This new variant will be included later this week. 

Had enough bad news yet? Well, it gets worse. Look at this graph:

Well, schools are open again quite soon. We have no mask mandates in place and most have not updated their air filtration systems. In addition, their vax rates have been paltry. Look your children in the eye and tell them this is the NN, we have to live with it. Come on, what happened to a society that doesn't stop fighting to keep all safe and healthy. There is a glimmer of potential slowdown coming soon in the form of a Omicron specific vaccine. Given this countries recent past the effectiveness will be minimized by the anti-vax/mask crowd. These luddites bring us all down. I have used the analogy before, what if the allied powers of WWII would have said "enough sacrifice, the hell with rationing and working together". Scary thought, just as our policies and attitudes toward the pandemic are.

Stay tuned, new forecasts will be coming quickly as I try to catch up to the current date. Stay safe, vaccinate, mask, socially distance, and avoid public indoor locations. This struggle is far from over.