Schools and Mandates

This just came out: https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj-2022-071234

And this is now being as justification for more push to back to school.Of course POC of have been impacted more. Most do not have the online access for remote learning unless they go to some free wi-fi areas. And they were already behind the eight ball to begin with: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/national-test-scores-math-reading-pandemic.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20220901&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=125060377&segment_id=102921&user_id=068086cf982ff7273bf621a1858e627f 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1565359725981712385

Kids can get #longCOVID. Kitty was a fit 14-year-old. She enjoyed ballet, paddleboarding, & running. Then she contracted #COVID19. “You go through so many phases of up and down, it’s like being on a rollercoaster forever."

Kids can be sent back to school IF adequate protections have been put in place. They need the social interaction and the growth schools provide outside of learning. As a parent you should inquire about school upgrades like the HVAC system. Are your kids vaccinated and what is the vaccination rate in your area for the children. What other mitigation strategies are there? Not masking is makes no sense. Testing should be implemented like the South Korean model (test to stay, listed below). Each school district has its own Covid landscape. There is really no black and white answers here. Personally I would have difficulties. The best at the moment for my county would be waiting for the next generation of Omicron specific vaccines to be available for children. There is no need to rush them back but if you do send your child back inform yourself and be vigilant about assessing their health and any risks your family might have to possible exposure.

Saw this from an expert frequently seen on MSM: 

Leana Wen, M.D.

@DrLeanaWen

·

2h

This is important. 98% of school districts are not going to require masks. It's a very different point in the pandemic compared to the last school year, and updated CDC guidance to ease restrictions will help minimize disruption to in-person learning & extracurriculars.

Let's take a look at this landscape:

1. Vaccine efficacy: effective against Delta vs. decreasing efficacy with each new dominant Omicron variant. BA.5.x, vaccines+both boosters (national booster rate is woeful) do help hospitalization rates, deaths, and outcomes in general.
2. Natural immunity post infection: effective against Delta wanes over the the course of a few months vs efficacy moderate for a couple weeks and also decreases with each new dominant dominant Omicron variant.
3. Contagiousness: like comparing a mountain to a mole hill. Not even close between BA.5 and Delta. Estimates vary wildly but 3 fold is a good starting point.
4. Reinfection: BA.5 4/5 times BA.1/2
5. Active Case levels: percent of population infected with BA.5 dwarfs Delta at its most prevalent phase Hard to get hard numbers because testing has been dialed back so far.
6. Average national vaccine efficacy: aging impacts the efficacy, during Delta is was 70-80%, now the national average is below the magic number of 50%
7. Mask mandates in schools: A majority of school districts had mask mandates in place during Delta, now it will be less than 3%

And we can top it off with this:

and now this:

Yes, the landscape has greatly changed. I leave it to your own judgement whether relaxing restrictions is wise. Oh, forgot to mention BA.2.75 is increasing and a seasonal shift indoors is on the way. We are fueling this "endemic phase" (see the article below) like we think it will burn out on its own. Good luck with that one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/opinion/covid-19-deaths-vaccines-endemic.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20220803&instance_id=68376&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=125060377&segment_id=100367&te=1&user_id=068086cf982ff7273bf621a1858e627f

More fuel to the fire: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7131a3.htm?s_cid=mm7131a3_w

Vaccination data, not good: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/08/study-pfizer-covid-vaccine-efficacy-wanes-27-days-after-dose-2-teens

8-11-2022: Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 cases in children last week grew for the fourth consecutive week, the American Academy of Pediatrics said in its latest weekly update. Nearly 97,000 cases were reported for the week ending Aug 4, and kids' illnesses are trending upward just ahead of the start of the new school year.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/08/covids-long-shadow-symptoms-may-last-2-18-months

8-17-2022:stay in school paper

https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/doi/10.1542/peds.2022-058200/188760/Test-to-Stay-After-SARS-CoV-2-Exposure-A

Here is further evidence for public school mitigation!

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2794964

9-24-2022: T1D and children. Really want to risk a lifetime of diabetes so they can go to school maskless? https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/09/research-explores-possible-link-between-type-1-diabetes-covid-19